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North Korea: A war scenario
A Korea WebWeekly Feature Article
3/5/2003



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China and Japan:
 
While claiming that North Korea's nuclear issue will be resolved peacefully, Bush has been placing his military strike forces in place for a war with North Korea. US B52 and B2 strategic bombers on Guam are loaded with nuclear bombs and ready to take off at any time. The US Navy Carl Vinson nuclear carrier task force is within bombing range of North Korea - but outside the range of North Korea's Scud-Bs. Several US nuclear subs are already positioned in the East and West seas to fire nuclear missiles at North Korean targets.

Over 100,000 American troops, backed up by 600,000 South Korean and Japanese troops, are on the ready to invade North Korea. Japan has declared that it has the legal right to mount preemptive strikes on North Korea and has placed warships in the East Sea. Japanese troops have made several practice runs to occupy Pyongyang. The US military's first priority is to knock out North Korea's nuclear weapons, biochemical warheads, and missiles. Smart bombs and ground-penetrating nuclear weapons will be fired from strategic bombers and nuclear submarines.

The initial air attacks will be followed by close-range air attacks by Japanese, South Korean and US fighters. The air attacks will be followed by naval bombardments and Inchon-style landings of Japanese, South Korean and US special forces near Pyongyang and Hungnam. Massive ground forces led by several thousands tanks will cross the DMZ and race to the Yalu and Tumen borders. Such is Bush's war plan.

The unholy alliance of South Korean troops and Korea's archenemy - Japanese - reminds one of the last Chosen king who had invited Japanese troops to put down the Tonghak rebels. The Japanese troops murdered tens of thousands of Koreans and many Chosen army officers and soldiers joined to the rebels to fight the Japanese invaders. Will the history repeat itself? President Roh Moo Hyung says no war in Korea - but he is not the decision maker. Will he order his troops to fight the Japanese 'ally'?

How would North Korea deal with the Japan-Seoul-US allied invasion?

Kim Jong Il will strike first at the first sure sign of invasion. His army and people have been waiting for the moment for over half a century and will be much pleased to kill some Japanese and Yanks. Kim has over one million soldiers, more than 8,000 heavy guns that fire 300,000 shells loaded with biochemicals per hour, and missiles that can hit Japan and Los Angeles, Seattle, and other major American cities. It is believed that North Korean missiles hidden in caves are already loaded with WMD warheads and ready to go.

North Korea has more than 5,000 tons of biochemical agents, including sarin, anthrax, smallpox and the plague. The US CIA says North Korea has 1 or 2, or 4-5 or 7-8 'crude' nuclear bombs. North Korea's nuclear program dates back to 1950 and it would be naive to believe that North Korea has managed to produce only 1-2 or 7-8 bombs during half a century. The truth of the matter is that North Korea may have helped Pakistan and Iran with nuclear weaponry. A Pakistani nuclear scientist has admitted that North Korea's nuclear program is far more advanced than the Pak program and that it is nonsensical to claim that Pakistan gave nuclear secrets to North Korea. It was probably the other way around.

The most potent weapon North Korea has is its special forces that number over 100,000 - the largest in the world. These troops are trained for suicide missions. North Korea has about 100 submarines, several hundreds transport planes, semi-submersible high-speed boats and other means of transportation that can inject its special forces into Japanese cities and the coastal cities of America.

At the start of war, Kim Jong Il is most likely to fire all of his WMD missiles on Japan and the US homeland. US naval task forces and submarines will be hit with anti-ship cruise missiles and nuclear-chemical Scuds. His artillery would open up on military targets along the DMZ and the rear-area troop concentrations. Contrary to the US claim, Kim is unlikely to hit Seoul except the US 8th Army base at Yongsan. Likewise, his army is unlikely to invade South Korea - instead, they would stay put in their well-fortified bunkers to defend the homeland against the invading armies.

Kim's forces will hunker down for a long war of attrition. His army is well equipped with anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. North Korea has a large number of anti-ship cruise missiles. At least 30% - if not more - of Kim's dug-in military is likely to survive US nuclear attacks and be alive to repel the invading forces. North Korea has over 2 million well-armed militia tasked to defend their towns and villages in support of the regular armed forces.

After Kim's initial missile and artillery attacks, several thousand suicide squads would spring into action at the same time and attack targets in Japan and in the United States. Kim's air force and navy will be tasked to transport the kamikaze squads to their destinations. It is possible that many of them are already in place. The suicide squads are trained to attack nuclear facilities, dams, chemical plants and storage tanks, oil depots, power stations, gas pipelines, bridges, tunnels and so on. Their mission is to cause as many casualties among the civilian populace. A dozen or so suicide terrorists were responsible for the 9.11 that killed 3,000 or so people - now imagine 100,000 suicide terrorists attacking several thousand targets at the same time!

According to a Japanese intelligence source, North Korea has a secret plan to hit Tokyo with Rodong missiles loaded with chemicals first and then a large special force unit will occupy it as a hostage. Other cities in Japan may be attacked similarly. If enough cities are held as hostages, the allied may be forced to sue for peace.

As far as the nuclear bombs go, North Korea's primary targets would be American cities, if it had only a few nukes. On the other hand, if Kim has one hundred or more nukes, Japanese cities would be hit as well. Kim is unlikely to nuke South Korean targets, but instead, he will use conventional weapons in South Korea.

It is likely that Kim Jong Il and most of his troops would die but there would be enough hardcore troops left alive to carry on the fight. Millions will die in Korea. Kim will see to it that many more millions will die in Japan and in the United States. Bush's generals apparently believe that beating Kim will be a cake-walk. Bush may not have to wait too long to learn the truth.

* The author's view does not reflect that of AFAR.

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